How can the world better understand Russia? What are the steps forward for Western policy? The Eurasia Center’s new “RussiaTomorrow” series seeks to reevaluate conceptions of Russia today and better prepare for its future tomorrow.
Significant investment in the Global South and Central Asia, climate change, and a Northern Sea Route in the Arctic, could shift the narrative for Russia moving forward, revitalizing its power and influence.
Brussels, 28 March 2024 – The consolidation of power within the Kremlin, with or without Vladimir Putin, albeit undesirable, is the most likely scenario for Russia after a defeat in Ukraine.
Could it happen again? Perhaps not immediately. But Russia remains a conglomerate of 21 republics, dozens more regions, and even more nationalities with uncountable grievances against Moscow.
Such influence as Russia had exercised in parts of the West would have been mostly destroyed for the foreseeable future. The enlargement and rejuvenation of NATO and the EU would transform the balance of power in Europe to its detriment.
The final section of the report provides a general conclusion of the Impact Study and a set of overarching recommendations, which are generally applicable to the EU in its future approach to Russia in the years to come.
Still, whenever and however Putin might go, his personalistic autocracy and, more broadly, Russia already face questions about the future. Putin’s regime styles itself an icebreaker, smashing to bits the U.S.-led international order on behalf of humanity.
In order to nonetheless identify which factors are most influential, this paper identifies 35 factors that frequently recur in a broad range of studies on Russia’s potential futures.
Putin’s actions on Trump’s inauguration day highlighted Russia's growing security and political concerns, from the Middle East to China and Belarus, with implications for Europe’s future.
For instance, Russia is now making the Shahed attack drones it once bought from Iran in the thousands. Bayraktar drones bought from Turkey helped Ukraine repel Russian advances early in the war.
